The Razumkov Institute presented its work "The Role and Place of Ukrainian Energy in World Energy Processes".
In the past 10 years, there have been several completely new trends in the world energy sector that are forcing countries to substantially restructure their national energy complexes. The economic prospects are directly dependent on how well one or another state is ready to take into account these global trends, how competently and promptly it is to switch to a qualitatively new energy sector. This was discussed during the presentation of the publication "The Role and Place of Ukrainian Energy in World Energy Processes" prepared by the Razumkov Center specialists.
The site "Today" gathered the most interesting facts and trends, which the experts talked about during the presentation.
Oil, coal and gas will give way to biofuels and solar energy.
According to experts, the key trends in the global energy industry that will directly affect Ukraine will be an increase in energy consumption, an increase in the share of renewable energy and the massive introduction of digital technologies in this area.
In particular, energy consumption by 2035 will increase by almost a third - from 13.1 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2015 to 17.3 billion tons in 2035. In Ukraine, total energy consumption will increase by 7% - from 90 to 96 million tons of oil equivalent.
"Increasing the use of energy in the world will be uneven. Developed countries practically do not increase consumption. The increase will occur mainly due to the countries that are developing. First of all, China, India, African countries," said Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.
It is expected that oil consumption in the world in the period from 2015 to 2035 will decrease from 32 to 27%, and part of the coal from 29 to 22%. And the part of renewable energy sources will increase by 5 times.
"But this does not mean that Ukraine should completely abandon traditional energy sources, since they will play a tangible and even key role for at least 15-20 years in the energy balance," said Vladimir Omelchenko.
Along with the growth of total energy consumption, according to experts, the share of renewable energy sources will significantly increase - using solar, wind and water. The world forecast for the next 15 years, the share of renewable sources will grow from the current 3% to 14%. And in Ukraine, apparently, this growth will be even more significant - from the current 5% to 25% by 2035.
Experts called decarbonization of energy systems one of the main global trends. That is, the gradual abandonment of traditional energy sources - fossil hydrocarbons, such as oil, coal, natural gas, peat and others, and an increasingly active transition to renewable sources.
The decarbonization of energy will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (in particular carbon dioxide CO2), which have a devastating effect on climate and cause global warming with consequences such as floods and droughts, hurricanes and storms, extinction of plants and animals.
"Today, all energy is focused on the topic of combating climate change. The advanced countries are building their energy complexes, focusing on the Paris agreements on climate change, which Ukraine has signed, " said Vladimir Omelchenko.
Reducing the use of traditional forms of energy is expected through the development of alternative energy, as well as reducing the energy intensity of industrial production
Electric cars will force out traditional cars.
Traditional cars will become a thing of the past as the use of traditional energy sources is reduced. Within a few years, they will be seriously pressed by electric vehicles launched into mass production.
According to experts, in 5 years, by 2022, electric cars will cost as much as their counterparts on fossil fuels. This can be achieved by reducing the cost of energy storage.
"One of the key trends is to reduce the cost of energy storage and increase its storage. The main obstacle for renewable energy remains the lack of a sufficient amount of shunting capacity. But today the world is actively moving in the direction of reducing the cost of energy storage. Over the past few years, the number of patents for the development of new types of batteries has increased dramatically. Moreover, an increase in patents occurs exponentially. This suggests that in the next 4-5 years we expect a very serious breakthrough in this direction and the cheapening of the cost of energy. In fact, all obstacles for renewable energy sources will be removed," predicted Vladimir Omelchenko.
If today there are only 2 million electric vehicles worldwide, then by 2035 their number will increase 70 times, analysts at the Razumkov Center are convinced. And by 2040, 35 all sales of new cars in the world will fall on electric cars.
In Ukraine, according to forecasts, 25% of all cars will be electric. Moreover, significant reserves of lithium and nickel will allow Ukraine itself to produce batteries for cars.
Reforms in the energy sector are a matter of economic well-being and the energy independence of Ukraine.
In order not to be on the sidelines of global processes and realize their potential, Ukraine needs to update legislation, carry out reforms in the energy sphere and integrate its energy system into the EU energy system, experts warn.
Today, there are a number of problems in the Ukrainian power industry that require effective solutions.
Thus, Ukraine over the past few years has reduced gas consumption three times, becoming the world leader in this indicator. However, it is sad that the reason was the fall in GDP, and not the increase in energy efficiency.
"Unfortunately, the well-known events in the Donbass led to a shortage of anthracite coal in Ukraine. To solve this problem, it is necessary to increase investment in the extraction of the gas group of coal and re-equip anthracite blocks for the use of coal in the gas group. The fields in the territory controlled by Ukraine are not bad, there are prospects," said Vladimir Omelchenko.
As for the electricity market, then, according to the expert, without the integration of the Ukrainian energy system into the energy system of the European Union (ENTSO – E) it is impossible to talk about creating a full-fledged, competitive, liberal electricity market in Ukraine in the interests of consumers. In addition, the integration of Ukraine in ENTSO-E will expand the range of capacity exchange up to 2 thousand MW in the direction of Ukraine-Moldova and over 2 thousand MW in the direction of Europe. Thus, it is possible to increase the capacity exchange with EU countries to 4 thousand MW by 2025-2030. That, in turn, can lead to the fact that Ukraine will be able to receive an additional over 1.5 billion euros from the sale of electricity.
The expert also called the issue of preserving gas transit in connection with the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline (from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine) to be extremely important. He is convinced that Ukraine can save transit by uniting in a consortium for managing the Ukrainian gas transmission system with partners who are not dependent on the interests of Nord Stream-2. First of all with the Slovak or Italian gas transmission system operators. "The government is already addressing this issue," said Omelchenko. In addition, Ukraine needs to secure itself with a long-term contract for gas pumping over its territory according to the ship or pay principle of at least 50 bcm per year.
Prices in the Ukrainian market should be set on the basis of price parity with European exchanges. This will significantly increase domestic production and bring Ukraine closer to energy independence.
It is necessary to create conditions for the renewal and construction of new energy facilities. In particular, by increasing guarantees for the return of capital to investors.
"If we succeed in attracting investors to Ukraine, including production, the situation can really change in terms of ensuring macroeconomic stability," said Vasily Yurchishin, director of economic programs at the Razumkov Center.
In addition, experts of the Razumkov Center believe that it is very important to separate energy from political processes. What becomes especially relevant in connection with the upcoming elections.
"Today we see a very serious political influence that politicians want to make on the formation of prices and tariffs. This leads to market imbalances and ultimately negatively affects both consumers and investment processes in Ukraine," said Vladimir Omelchenko.
The source: https://www.segodnya.ua/economics/enews/ukraina-budet-perehodit-na-elektromobili-i-alternativnuyu-energetiku-uskorennymi-tempami-1116526.html